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Inflation dips to 4.9%; core consumer price gains stay elevated

Inflation dips to 4.9%; core consumer price gains stay elevated

CPI reports live updates:

An original inflation measure that captures longer-lasting trends remained elevated. Inflation dips to 4.9%; core consumer price gains stay from a year earlier, down from 5% in March and a 40-year high of 9.1% last June, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. That’s the smallest yearly increase since April 2021.

Fed hikes interest rate in May 10, 2023:Fed hikes interest rates 0.25 percentage point but signals pause in inflation fight.

Inflation cools: Inflation slows to 5% in March, a nearly 2-year low, but core consumer price gains accelerate

  • difference between core CPI or CPI:

CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. It is commonly used as an indicator of inflation.

Core CPI is a measure of the CPI that excludes the volatile food and energy components, as these prices can fluctuate significantly in the short term and may not reflect underlying inflationary trends. Core CPI is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation, as it reflects the trend in prices for goods and services that are less subject to short-term price movements.

So, the main difference between CPI and core CPI is that CPI includes all goods and services in its calculation, including food and energy prices, while core CPI excludes these components. As a result, core CPI is generally considered a more reliable indicator of long-term inflation trends

  • What is the future of gas prices?

Gas prices increased in April they are down 12.2% from a year ago. In recent weeks, pump prices have fallen again. Nationally, regular unleaded gasoline averaged $3.53 a gallon Tuesday, down from $3.60 a month ago

Gas prices are influenced by a variety of factors, including global supply and demand, geopolitical events, natural disasters, economic conditions, and government policies. One significant factor that is likely to affect gas prices in the future is the shift towards renewable energy sources and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles. As more countries commit to reducing their carbon emissions, there is likely to be a decrease in demand for gasoline, which could potentially lead to lower gas prices.

Another factor that could influence gas prices is the level of global oil production. OPEC and other oil-producing countries have a significant influence on oil prices by controlling the supply of oil. If these countries decide to reduce oil production, this could potentially lead to higher gas prices. Additionally, geopolitical events such as conflicts or sanctions could also impact gas prices.

Overall, predicting gas prices is complex, and there are many factors at play. While it is impossible to accurately predict the future of gas prices, it is likely that the shift towards renewable energy sources and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles will have a significant impact on the demand for gasoline and, therefore, the price of gas in the future.

  • Will the Fed continue to raise rates?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is responsible for setting monetary policy in the United States. One of the tools they use to influence the economy is the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight. When the Fed raises the federal funds rate, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow money, which can slow down economic growth and inflation.

There are many factors that the Fed considers when deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates, including inflation, employment, and economic growth. If the economy is growing too quickly and inflation is rising too fast, the Fed may raise interest rates to slow down growth and prevent inflation from getting out of control. On the other hand, if the economy is sluggish and inflation is low, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending and boost economic growth.

Ultimately, the decision to raise or lower interest rates depends on the current state of the economy and the Fed’s assessment of future economic trends. It’s difficult to predict exactly when or how much the Fed will raise rates in the future, as it depends on a complex array of economic indicators and variables.

  • Inflation winners and losers:

The annual percentage rate on a new credit card has jumped from slightly above 16% to almost 24%. Meanwhile, in the past year, Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rates have increased from 3.6% to 6.4%. That means if you made a $90,000 down payment and obtained a $450,000 mortgage, your monthly payment would spike by 31%, or roughly $615, according to a Bank rate calculator.

Inflation can have both winners and losers, depending on the circumstances. Here are a few examples:

Winners:

  1. Borrowers: If you have borrowed money at a fixed interest rate, inflation can work in your favor. As the value of money decreases over time, the real value of your debt decreases as well. This means that you are essentially paying back less in real terms than you borrowed.
  2. Asset holders: If you own assets that appreciate in value with inflation, such as real estate or stocks, then you can benefit from inflation. As the general price level rises, the value of these assets will likely increase as well, which can lead to significant gains over time.
  3. Wage earners: Inflation can lead to wage increases as well, especially if there is a labor shortage in the economy. This is because employers may need to offer higher wages to attract and retain workers in a more competitive job market.

Losers:

  1. Fixed income earners: If you rely on a fixed income, such as a pension or annuity payment, then inflation can erode the purchasing power of your income over time. This means that you may not be able to afford as much as you could in the past.
  2. Savers: If you have a significant amount of cash savings, inflation can be detrimental to your savings over time. As the general price level rises, the purchasing power of your savings decreases, which means that you may need to save more just to maintain your current standard of living.
  3. Consumers: Inflation can lead to higher prices for goods and services, which can be especially difficult for those on fixed incomes or with lower incomes. This means that you may need to spend more just to maintain your current standard of living, which can be challenging for many households.
  • Core Consumer Price Index:

Economists expect the core consumer price index for April to show prices rose 0.3% over March, and 5.4%, year over year.

The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is a measure of inflation that excludes the prices of volatile items, such as food and energy, from the calculation. The Core CPI is a subset of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change in prices over time of a basket of goods and services consumed by households.

The reason for excluding food and energy prices is that they can be very volatile due to factors such as weather, geopolitical events, and changes in supply and demand. By excluding these items, the Core CPI provides a more accurate picture of underlying inflation trends.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the Core CPI on a monthly basis and publishes the data as part of its broader CPI report. The Core CPI is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to gauge the direction of inflation and to make decisions about monetary policy, investments, and other economic activities.

 

  • Fed inflation report

The Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, comes out on May 26.

The next consumer price index report is scheduled to be released on June 13.

  • What is a good inflation rate?:

The Federal Reserve of the United States typically aims for an inflation rate of around 2% per year. This rate is considered to be a healthy balance between encouraging economic growth and avoiding the negative effects of inflation, such as eroding purchasing power and reducing the value of savings over time.

However, it’s worth noting that what constitutes a “good” inflation rate can vary depending on various factors, including the state of the economy and the preferences of policymakers. Inflation rates that are too low or too high can have negative consequences for economic growth, employment, and financial stability. Therefore, central banks such as the Federal Reserve often strive to maintain a stable, predictable rate of inflation in order to support a healthy economy.

 

  • What is the difference between core consumer price and overall consumer price index?

The core consumer price index (CPI) and overall consumer price index (CPI) are both measures of inflation that track changes in the prices of goods and services over time. The key difference between the two is what they include and exclude in their calculations.

The overall CPI measures the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers typically purchase, including food, housing, transportation, and healthcare, among others. This index includes all goods and services, regardless of whether their prices are volatile or not. In other words, it includes all the items in the basket of goods and services that are used to calculate the index.

The core CPI, on the other hand, is a subset of the overall CPI that excludes the prices of certain volatile goods and services, such as food and energy. The rationale behind excluding these items is that they are subject to more frequent price fluctuations and can distort the overall CPI. By excluding them, the core CPI aims to provide a more stable measure of inflation over time.

In summary, the main difference between the core CPI and overall CPI is that the former excludes the prices of volatile goods and services, such as food and energy, while the latter includes all items in the basket of goods and services.

  • Conclusion:

according to recent data and analysis from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation has been rising steadily in the US over the past few months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services consumed by households, increased by 4.2% over the last 12 months (as of April 2023).

Some economists believe that the current inflation is temporary and will subside as supply chains and production return to normal levels, while others are concerned that it may become more persistent and lead to longer-term economic consequences.

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve is responsible for implementing monetary policy in the US, which includes managing inflation. The Fed has indicated that it is closely monitoring inflation and will take appropriate measures to support the economy while keeping inflation under control.

Overall, the situation surrounding inflation in America is complex and ongoing, and the ultimate outcome will depend on a variety of factors and policy decisions.

FAQs:

  1. What is inflation? Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.
  2. What causes inflation? There are several factors that can contribute to inflation, including an increase in the money supply, rising demand for goods and services, increased production costs, and supply chain disruptions.
  3. How is inflation measured in the US? In the US, inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the price changes of a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by consumers.
  4. What is the current rate of inflation in the US? As of April 2023, the CPI-U increased by 5.1% over the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
  5. Is inflation always bad? Not necessarily. Some level of inflation can be a sign of a healthy economy, as it can indicate strong demand for goods and services. However, high and prolonged inflation can be detrimental to the economy, as it can reduce the value of money and lead to higher interest rates.
  6. How does inflation affect the average person? Inflation can affect the average person in several ways, such as reducing the purchasing power of their income, increasing the cost of living, and reducing the value of their savings and investments.
  7. What can individuals do to protect themselves from inflation? Individuals can take several steps to protect themselves from inflation, such as investing in assets that tend to appreciate in value during inflationary periods, such as real estate, commodities, and precious metals. Additionally, individuals can try to save more money and reduce unnecessary expenses to mitigate the effects of inflation.

Inflation

 

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